Multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTAD) is crucial for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of complex systems. Many existing methods learn normal patterns by training reconstruction or...
arXiv:2606. 27286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mechanistic epidemiological models are widely used to support infectious disease forecasting and public-health decision making.
arXiv:2512. 18965v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Structured State Space Models (SSMs), which are at the heart of the recently popular Mamba architecture, are powerful tools for sequence modeling.
The paper introduces block‑triangular joint drifting, a method that applies a projected drift field to the joint distribution of consecutive states, enabling one‑step generative surrogate models for stochastic transition dynamics. This architecture preserves the current‑state marginal while directly sampling the conditional distribution of next states, allowing stochastic trajectories to be generated with a single model evaluation per time step. Experiments show that the approach achieves accurate marginal and trajectory‑dependent statistics with favorable accuracy‑cost tradeoffs compared to deterministic, diffusion, flow, and distillation‑based generative surrogates.
The paper presents PAC‑Bayesian reconstruction guarantees for Variational Autoencoders applied to time‑series data. It extends existing bounds, which were limited to i.i.d. settings, to Markovian latent structures, allowing temporal dependencies to be captured without the bounds growing with trajectory length. The authors also provide an example framework showing that the required assumptions are not overly restrictive.
arXiv:2606. 00795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations.
arXiv:2509.13267v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A discrete Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) consisting of categorical variables. Two popular approaches for DBN modeling in...
arXiv:2606. 15784v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is often described through the amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration, or AT(N), cascade.
arXiv:2608. 13621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A hidden Markov model (HMM) combines three roles: inference of a hidden-state belief from observations, propagation through a Markov transition, and emission back to observation space.
arXiv:2609.07660v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The concept of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) cycles, an analogy to cyclic processes in heat engines, is presented in order to examine Bayesian infe...
arXiv:2606. 16219v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing.
arXiv:2609.31368v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tree-Adjoining Grammars (TAGs) have recently been introduced to Nonlinear System Identification (NLSI) as a means of encoding an entire model class as...