arXiv:2610.31869v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Covariate-aware time series foundation models (TSFMs) accept a future path for a control variable and return a forecast, inviting what-if queries. The...
The paper introduces a schema‑adaptive action‑conditioned Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC‑JEPA) for cross‑machine CNC transfer when only a subset of sensors overlap between source and target machines. Experiments show that pretraining does not improve source‑only forecasting, but a carefully selected action‑conditioned JEPA model achieves a zero‑shot RMSE of 0.546 on the target, outperforming persistence but falling short of certain baseline models. Ablation studies reveal that adding RevIN improves RMSE but harms calibration, and limited post‑lock adaptation can further reduce error.
arXiv:2610. 12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth.
The study investigates whether the number of discrete class‑separability jumps (phase transitions) observed during ResNet fine‑tuning can predict final test accuracy. Across 75 experiments on four benchmarks (CIFAR‑10, CIFAR‑100, TinyImageNet, CIFAR‑10‑C) and three ResNet variants, a strong negative correlation is found on standard i.i.d. datasets (r = −0.84 on CIFAR‑10, r = −0.87 on CIFAR‑100), while the correlation weakens under distributional stress. Additional analyses show that the transition count retains predictive power after controlling for architecture depth and outperforms other training‑curve signals on in‑distribution benchmarks, though it is dominated by other signals on stressed datasets.
arXiv:2608. 11797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model merging by task arithmetic works until it doesn't, and the field diagnoses why with magnitudes: layerwise representation bias, deviations from cross-task linearity, parameter overlap.
The paper investigates when auxiliary context can genuinely improve multi‑modal time series forecasting. It identifies two necessary dataset‑level conditions: the target must not be dominated by a last‑value shortcut (low autocorrelation) and the context must provide additional information beyond history (non‑zero conditional mutual information). Experiments on a large mixture‑of‑experts model and several fusion mechanisms show that only when both conditions hold does context routing yield a substantial reduction in mean‑squared error; otherwise its contribution collapses to a capacity floor.
arXiv:2610.02252v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Mode...
arXiv:2508. 08289v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Attention is widely understood as an associative memory, but that description alone does not predict how the memory will behave.
arXiv:2610.06798v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifi...
arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.
The paper introduces the concept of causal retention in interactive agents, examining whether a frozen learned state can correctly answer a mechanism‑probe map that is fixed independently of training. It shows that for finite structural causal models the optimal probe error is a Bayes decision risk, vanishing only when each learning‑interface fiber lies within a single probe‑answer fiber, and provides theoretical results such as a posterior‑coverage theorem and an exact edit decomposition. Experiments on finite causal systems, continuous simulators, TD‑MPC2, and Qwen2.5‑7B‑Instruct demonstrate that causal retention can be achieved with high accuracy, outperforming task‑performance‑based approaches.
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.