arXiv:2508. 17077v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods.
arXiv:2606. 10777v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes settings.
arXiv:2509. 23385v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data.
arXiv:2609.39712v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) for the parameters of models with intractable likelihoods but tractable forward simulation. Bui...
The paper introduces rankECE, a new metric for assessing calibration error in predictive models. Unlike the widely used Expected Calibration Error (ECE), rankECE compares predictions with neighboring probability values, offering theoretical guarantees and empirical evidence that it better approximates ECE than traditional binned methods.
arXiv:2408. 08998v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications.
arXiv:2505. 19033v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2507. 08150v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling.
arXiv:2608. 05064v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human.
arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.
arXiv:2607. 21843v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Empirical Bayes (EB) performs simultaneous inference across many related latent variables.
Conformal Calibration Transfer addresses the challenge of applying conformal prediction when labeled calibration data is only available in a source space, while predictions are needed in a target space linked via unlabeled paired observations. The proposed Transported Conformal Calibration (TCC) method transports source calibration into the target domain and then corrects residual mismatches using only unlabeled target inputs, with two variants: TCC‑KS, which conservatively adjusts calibration based on a label‑free uncertainty surrogate, and weighted‑TCC, which reweights transported calibration for efficiency when weights are stable. Finite‑sample target‑domain coverage guarantees are provided, and experiments on CIFAR‑100‑C, Tiny‑ImageNet‑C, and SEN12MS demonstrate reliable coverage transfer without labeled target data, along with label‑free diagnostics to signal when correction is required.