arXiv:2408. 08998v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications.
By Yan Sun, Pratik Chaudhari, Ian J. Barnett, Edgar Dobriban
arXiv:2606. 10777v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes settings.
By Arthur Hoarau
arXiv:2605. 26703v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule.
By Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
The paper argues that traditional global calibration metrics, such as Expected Calibration Error and Brier Score, are confounded by differences in model accuracy when comparing large language models. It introduces ACE, an accuracy‑controlled evaluation framework that offers Instance‑Aligned, Distribution‑Aligned, and Candidate‑Aligned views to provide fairer cross‑model comparisons. Experiments across various benchmarks reveal that many reported calibration advantages disappear after accuracy control and that model rankings often reverse, indicating that raw global metrics are unreliable for cross‑model calibration assessment.
By Zhichao Yang, Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang, Chengzu Li, Nigel Collier, Deqing Yang
arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.
By \'Ad\'am Jung, Domokos M. Kelen, Andr\'as A. Bencz\'ur
arXiv:2606. 09517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As renewable energy integration increases market volatility, probabilistic electricity price forecasting has become essential for effective risk management.
By Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Benjamin Sch\"afer