arXiv:2607. 06570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure.
arXiv:2607. 11920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck.
arXiv:2606. 12502v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose that value -- the quantity goal-directed agents create, destroy, and exchange -- is a lawful structural quantity in the same category as information.
arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.
arXiv:2606. 15600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality.
arXiv:2604. 10727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical information-theoretic learning bounds typically rely on KL mutual information and moment-generating-function (MGF) arguments, which are well matched to bounded or sub-Gaussian losses but can be ineffective when losses or rewards are heavy-tailed.
arXiv:2608. 10650v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reducing the number of focal elements of a mass function is classically driven by an intrinsic distance, such as Jaccard or Jousselme, that keeps the approximation close to the original as a body of evidence.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2602. 19172v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Realizable online regression can behave very differently from online classification.
arXiv:2608. 08662v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The single-selection prophet inequality is a canonical Bayesian online selection problem in which independent nonnegative values arrive sequentially and the decision-maker must irrevocably select at most one.
arXiv:2606. 26418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A non-agentic "oracle" AI that estimates probabilities of future events faces a self-reference problem: once its answer is learned and acted upon, it can change the very probability it was asked to report.
arXiv:2608. 16438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In a world where valuable artifacts are increasingly created, completed, or processed by LLMs, the central economic question is not only what the LLM can produce, but what \emph{value} remains in the inputs (i.
arXiv:2607. 20694v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Personal and organizational planning systems maintain two records that drift apart: what was planned (a task's effort budget) and what was done (a logged action's duration and description).