arXiv Statistics ML

Transitional Conditional Independence

arXiv:2104. 11547v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical models contain variables that are not random: parameters, treatments, environments, design points.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

Universality of empirical risk minimization

arXiv:2202. 08832v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study a general class of optimization problems with decision variable $\boldsymbol{\Theta} \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times k}$ and cost function which is the sum of $n$ terms, each dependent on $\boldsymbol{\Theta}$ through the $k$-dimensional projection $\boldsymbol{\Theta}^\top \boldsymbol{x}_i$, where $\boldsymbol{x}_i$, $i \leq n$ are i.

By Andrea Montanari, Basil Saeed
arXiv AI
Sep 10

How to Verify Probabilistic Consistency of Predictive Models

The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.

By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv AI
Aug 12

How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims

arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?

By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser