The paper presents a decision‑aware framework for predicting dementia‑related crash severity that emphasizes auditability and selective deferral. Using 4,781 Texas crash records, the authors evaluate several models—including structured, narrative, fusion, calibrated fusion, BERT‑family, and local large‑language‑model baselines—under a stratified 70/15/15 split. The leakage‑controlled Gemma model achieves the highest macro‑F1 of 0.545, while a calibrated fusion model reaches 0.522 macro‑F1 with an expected calibration error of 0.033; selective deferral further improves performance, raising macro‑F1 to 0.573 at 70% coverage and reducing severity cost to 0.577.
By Gaurab Chhetri, Anika Baitullah, Subasish Das
arXiv:2609.11592v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Transportation agencies increasingly predict crash-injury severity with statistical and machine-learning models, but these models do not state how...
By Amir Rafe, Subasish Das
arXiv:2603. 14841v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Road crashes remain a leading cause of preventable fatalities.
By Joyjit Roy, Samaresh Kumar Singh, Sushanta Das
arXiv:2607. 11128v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-time driving risk assessment provides an essential basis for proactive safety by identifying and quantifying the danger of ongoing road interactions before adverse outcomes occur.
By Zhuoren Li, Yi Zhong, Weiqi Zhang, Xinrui Zhang, Lu Xiong, Chongfeng Wei, Bo Leng
arXiv:2601. 16406v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Rare-event prediction is critical in domains such as healthcare, finance, reliability engineering, customer support, aviation safety, where positive outcomes are infrequent yet potentially catastrophic.
By Vitaly Bulgakov, Alexander Turchin
The paper proposes Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework that requires regulated institutions to maintain a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) separating allowable from disallowed causal pathways in high‑risk machine learning systems. CEG introduces the Causal Harm Rate to quantify prediction variation due to disallowed pathways and pairs each decision with a signed Decision‑Evidence Packet (DEP) that cryptographically links the prediction to the DAG and path‑specific attributions, enabling efficient inclusion proofs via a Merkle tree. Empirical validation on synthetic credit data and the German Credit dataset demonstrates that CEG more clearly isolates causal effects than traditional fairness metrics and that a proof‑of‑concept implementation shows operational feasibility with manageable performance tradeoffs.
By Samah Kareem, Bar{\i}\c{s} \c{C}elikta\c{s}
arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.
By Manpreet Singh, Akshatha Srikantha, Shyamal Lakhanpal
The paper proposes a proactive approach to road safety in Greater Sydney by using connected vehicle telemetry to predict risky driving events before crashes occur. It quantifies risky driving with g‑force thresholds and builds spatio‑temporal heatmaps to locate high‑risk zones. Eight predictive models were compared, with ARIMA achieving the lowest error and showing that simple time‑series methods can rival deep learning when data are limited, highlighting the value of IoT data for targeted safety interventions.
By Adriana-Simona Mih\u{a}i\c{t}\u{a}, Clarence Cheung, Artur Grigorev, Tuo Mao, David Lillo-Trynes
arXiv:2606. 12500v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traffic microsimulation combined with surrogate safety measures has increasingly been used as a proactive alternative to historical crash data for predicting crash frequency for current or planned road infrastructure designs.
By Xian Liu, Carlo G. Prato, Gustav Markkula
arXiv:2608. 19380v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While modern autonomous driving systems excel at perception tasks such as object detection and trajectory prediction, they lack the high-level causal reasoning required to interpret traffic accidents.
By Sparsh Garg, Yi-Wen Chen, Vijay Kumar B G, Abhishek Aich
EG-ARSA introduces an Expert‑Grounded Distillation (EGD) framework that transfers institutional road safety expertise into a compact vision‑language model for visual road safety auditing. The method calibrates a teacher model against authoritative field audits, achieving a Cohen’s kappa of 0.74 before generating structured supervision for an 8‑billion‑parameter student model via Low‑Rank Adaptation. The authors also release Bangladesh Road Safety Audit (BD‑ARSA), an open dataset of 21,947 image‑audit records, and demonstrate that the student model outperforms both its larger teacher and Gemini‑2.5‑Flash in ordinal risk assessment and expert evaluation.
By Md Thamed Bin Zaman Chowdhury, Moazzem Hossain
arXiv:2607. 29064v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Police crash narratives contain information that may supplement structured crash databases, but manual review is labor-intensive and it remains unclear how well large language models (LLMs) reproduce official crash coding.
By Sudhir Bharati, Rajendra K C Khatri, Sudip Bharati