Real-Time Driver Safety Scoring Through Inverse Crash Probability Modeling
arXiv:2603. 14841v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Road crashes remain a leading cause of preventable fatalities.
arXiv:2606. 12500v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traffic microsimulation combined with surrogate safety measures has increasingly been used as a proactive alternative to historical crash data for predicting crash frequency for current or planned road infrastructure designs.
arXiv:2603. 14841v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Road crashes remain a leading cause of preventable fatalities.
The paper proposes a proactive approach to road safety in Greater Sydney by using connected vehicle telemetry to predict risky driving events before crashes occur. It quantifies risky driving with g‑force thresholds and builds spatio‑temporal heatmaps to locate high‑risk zones. Eight predictive models were compared, with ARIMA achieving the lowest error and showing that simple time‑series methods can rival deep learning when data are limited, highlighting the value of IoT data for targeted safety interventions.
PRISM (Proactive Risk Intelligence and Safety Management) is an agentic multi-model architecture designed to shift autonomous transportation safety from reactive crash avoidance to proactive, continuous risk management. It uses inverse crash‑probability modeling to transform binary crash classifiers into dynamic safety scores, and runs three specialized models—trajectory kinematics, environmental risk, and VRU interaction—coordinated by a reinforcement‑learning reasoning layer. Across 1,296 naturalistic driving scenarios, PRISM achieved a mean safety score of 68/100, classified 77.6% of situations as advisory, and flagged 3.8% as near‑misses, with 11% requiring intervention or emergency response, highlighting trajectory risk and VRU proximity as key safety factors.
arXiv:2606. 00857v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving.
Safe autonomous driving requires both rapid responses to common high-risk events and deeper reasoning over rare, extreme long-tail scenarios in traffic safety. These scenarios are severely under-represented in naturalistic driving data, and existing trajectory and language-augmented datasets seldom provide high-risk event labels, semantic annotations, and verifiable safety signals.
arXiv:2607. 07103v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safe autonomous driving requires both rapid responses to common high-risk events and deeper reasoning over rare, extreme long-tail scenarios in traffic safety.
Traffic microsimulators rely on hand-crafted behavior models that reproduce aggregate flow but miss the heterogeneous interactions between vehicles at signalized intersections. Learned trajectory predictors capture richer interactions but are short-horizon and tend to be unstable when run in closed loop.
arXiv:2607. 16156v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Urban intersections are among the most hazardous locations in road networks, posing significant risks to vehicles and vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians and cyclists.
arXiv:2604. 28065v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Although intersections are the most complex parts of the roadway network, pedestrian crashes at non-intersection locations are disproportionately frequent, highlighting a serious traffic safety concern.
arXiv:2607. 11128v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-time driving risk assessment provides an essential basis for proactive safety by identifying and quantifying the danger of ongoing road interactions before adverse outcomes occur.
arXiv:2607. 08316v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vehicle intention prediction is a pivotal aspect in the agility and safety of autonomous vehicles in all driving scenarios; if genuine enhancement of autonomous vehicles are required, we need to make them adopt human interpretation of driver's intention especially in cases that require a lot of human interaction as well as complex driving behaviors like the ones at intersections, roundabouts and emergency cases such as sudden stops where vehicle intention prediction helps in taking the correct evasive action within a real time period where every second of action makes an impact and can prevent a catastrophe from taking place.
arXiv:2607. 24168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide.