arXiv:2607. 08377v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is central to the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs), and eigenvalues of semantic embeddings have recently emerged as a key tool in state-of-the-art methods.
By Sebastian G. Gruber, Nassim Walha, Francis Bach, Florian Buettner
arXiv:2606. 19868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, their outputs often remain unreliable and may contain hallucinations, making uncertainty estimation (UE) essential for building trustworthy LLMs.
By Jiayi Wang, Xu-Yao Zhang
arXiv:2504.18346v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination, i.e., confidently outputting incorrect inf...
By Toghrul Abbasli, Kentaroh Toyoda, Yuan Wang, Leon Witt, Muhammad Asif Ali, Yukai Miao, Dan Li, Qingsong Wei
Uncertainty quantification is central to the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs), and eigenvalues of semantic embeddings have recently emerged as a key tool in state-of-the-art methods. However, conventional calibration results developed for classification probabilities cannot be directly transferred to eigenvalues.
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2609.22206v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across a wide range of multimodal tasks, yet understanding and quantify...
By Soroush Seifi, Vaggelis Dorovatas, Lin Li, Yarin Gal, Rahaf Aljundi
arXiv:2607. 16868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce confidently stated yet unreliable outputs, posing critical challenges for deployment in safety-sensitive applications.
By Yanni Dong, Minghua Liu, Meiling Zhu, Xiaowei Huang, Lijun Zhang
arXiv:2511. 16275v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.
By Xingtao Zhao, Hao Peng, Dingli Su, Xianghua Zeng, Chunyang Liu, Jinzhi Liao, Philip S. Yu
arXiv:2608. 19323v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs).
By Sokhna Diarra Mbacke, Mouloud Belbahri, Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
arXiv:2512.14177v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) often produce plausible but unreliable outputs, making robust uncertainty estimation essential. Recent work on...
By Joseph Hoche, Andrei Bursuc, David Brellmann, Gilles Louppe, Pavel Izmailov, Angela Yao, Gianni Franchi
The paper presents the first large‑scale benchmark for uncertainty quantification (UQ) calibration in long‑form scientific question answering, evaluating four UQ methods on 685,000 responses from up to 20 large language models across seven datasets. It shows that instruction tuning leads to token‑level probability polarization, undermining token‑level uncertainty signals, while reasoning model families differ in how they handle this effect. Only semantic consistency—consistency of the final answer—provides well‑calibrated outputs, demonstrating that semantic calibration remains robust in multi‑step, dependency‑rich reasoning.
By Philip M\"uller, Nicholas Popovi\v{c}, Michael F\"arber, Peter Steinbach