arXiv AI By Sokhna Diarra Mbacke, Mouloud Belbahri, Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem

Improved Confidence Estimates for Black-Box Large Language Models

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arXiv:2608. 19323v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs).

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arXiv Computation and Language
2d ago

The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

The paper investigates the "score granularity gap" in black-box large language model (LLM) classifiers, asking how finely a confidence score can be thresholded for deployment. By comparing seven confidence construction methods across 25 model-dataset pairs, the authors find that single-shot verbalized confidence, when properly converted to a probability, ranks well but offers only a few distinct threshold values, limiting operational flexibility. The study also shows that multi-query aggregation can improve weak models but may harm strong ones, and provides concrete guidance for deployment trade-offs.

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