Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2607. 06327v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty estimation (UE) enables LLM-powered systems to recognize when to abstain, yet existing research has predominantly focused on English.
By Andrea Alfarano, Andrea Bacciu, Saab Mansour, Amin Mantrach, Marcello Federico
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors.
arXiv:2606. 27679v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probe-based uncertainty estimation (UE) has emerged as a prominent approach to detect hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by learning uncertainty from internal model signals.
By Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen, Quang Minh Nguyen, Duc Anh Vu, Anh Tuan Luu
arXiv:2511. 16275v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.
By Xingtao Zhao, Hao Peng, Dingli Su, Xianghua Zeng, Chunyang Liu, Jinzhi Liao, Philip S. Yu
arXiv:2606. 00301v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) arise from heterogeneous failure mechanisms, making reliable detection difficult for any single global uncertainty score.
By Wentao Ye, Liyao Li, Zhiqing Xiao, Muzhi Zhu, Jiaqi Hu, Zhanming Shen, Xiaomeng Hu, Sean Du, Haobo Wang
arXiv:2603. 24967v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment.
By Aditya Taparia, Ransalu Senanayake, Kowshik Thopalli, Vivek Narayanaswamy
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for language models are typically evaluated on single-turn outputs, where uncertainty is attached to one generated answer. For LLM agents, however, the unit of observation is an interactive trajectory, where the model can ask clarifying questions, call tools, update state, and make intermediate decisions whose errors propagate to the final outcome.
arXiv:2607. 10476v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for retrieving knowledge through seamless, human-like interactions.
By Basel Abdeen, S M Tahmid Siddiqui, Meah Tahmeed Ahmed, Anoop Singhal, Latifur Khan, Punya Parag Modi, Ehab Al-Shaer
arXiv:2603. 24929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in large language model (LLM) outputs is critical for reliable deployment.
By Farhan Ahmed, Yuya Jeremy Ong, Chad DeLuca
arXiv:2607. 12273v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As Code Large Language Models (LLMs) become central to modern software engineering, their inherent stochasticity poses significant real-world risks, where even minor errors can lead to severe functional, security, or safety consequences.
By Xiaoning Ren, Yinxing Xue, Lei Ma, Yuheng Huang