Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2606. 19868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, their outputs often remain unreliable and may contain hallucinations, making uncertainty estimation (UE) essential for building trustworthy LLMs.
By Jiayi Wang, Xu-Yao Zhang
Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors.
arXiv:2607. 16868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce confidently stated yet unreliable outputs, posing critical challenges for deployment in safety-sensitive applications.
By Yanni Dong, Minghua Liu, Meiling Zhu, Xiaowei Huang, Lijun Zhang
arXiv:2606. 01850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model compression techniques such as quantization and pruning are widely used to reduce the deployment cost of large language models (LLMs), with existing evaluations focusing almost exclusively on accuracy preservation.
By Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan, Tian Zhang, Junhao Dong, Jingling Yuan
arXiv:2607. 06327v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty estimation (UE) enables LLM-powered systems to recognize when to abstain, yet existing research has predominantly focused on English.
By Andrea Alfarano, Andrea Bacciu, Saab Mansour, Amin Mantrach, Marcello Federico
arXiv:2605. 04638v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate.
By Mingda Li, Rundong Lv, Xinyu Li, Weinan Zhang, Ting Liu
arXiv:2606. 02093v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ).
By Ieva Raminta Stali\=unait\.e, James Bishop, Andreas Vlachos
arXiv:2603. 24929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in large language model (LLM) outputs is critical for reliable deployment.
By Farhan Ahmed, Yuya Jeremy Ong, Chad DeLuca
arXiv:2607. 03870v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses.
By Ido Amit, Ido Galil, Ran El-Yaniv
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
arXiv:2602. 11908v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: LLMs are widely used, yet they remain prone to factual errors that erode user trust and limit adoption in high-risk settings.
By Shani Goren, Ido Galil, Ran El-Yaniv