arXiv:2606. 32012v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation has been a long-standing challenge in AI models; it amounts to "knowing what you don't know," and metacognition is notoriously difficult even for humans (cf.
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
arXiv:2507. 19634v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in large language models have laid the foundation for multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), which unify text, speech, and vision within a single framework.
The paper introduces Information-Guided Frontier Decoding (IGFD), a training‑free strategy for diffusion multimodal language models that prioritizes the commitment of reliable semantic tokens over fragile structural ones. IGFD ranks candidates by token confidence, neighborhood uncertainty, and structural commitment risk, and uses a dynamic frontier to limit selection to locally expandable regions. Across multiple multimodal benchmarks, IGFD consistently outperforms existing decoding methods while requiring no extra training or forward passes.
The paper presents the first large‑scale benchmark for uncertainty quantification (UQ) calibration in long‑form scientific question answering, evaluating four UQ methods on 685,000 responses from up to 20 large language models across seven datasets. It shows that instruction tuning leads to token‑level probability polarization, undermining token‑level uncertainty signals, while reasoning model families differ in how they handle this effect. Only semantic consistency—consistency of the final answer—provides well‑calibrated outputs, demonstrating that semantic calibration remains robust in multi‑step, dependency‑rich reasoning.
arXiv:2511. 16275v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.
The paper introduces Safety-aware Contrastive Decoding (SafeCoDe), a lightweight, model‑agnostic framework designed to improve context‑aware safety in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). SafeCoDe operates in two stages: a contrastive decoding step that highlights tokens sensitive to visual context by contrasting real and Gaussian‑noised images, and a global‑aware token modulation strategy that adjusts refusals based on scene‑level reasoning and predicted safety verdicts. Experiments across various MLLM architectures and safety benchmarks demonstrate that SafeCoDe consistently enhances context‑sensitive refusal behaviors while maintaining model helpfulness.
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
The paper identifies that in multimodal learning, optimization often produces asymmetric certainty gains, with the stronger modality becoming more confident than the weaker one, which leads to imbalanced contributions and suboptimal performance. The authors attribute this issue to unimodal characteristics and propose a Max Confidence Regularization (MaxCR) method that tracks each modality’s semantic confidence via a nonlinear sparsity measure and applies max suppression and excitation to balance confidence levels. Experiments on standard datasets demonstrate that MaxCR improves overall performance compared to state‑of‑the‑art multimodal baselines.
Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors.
As the chain-of-thought reasoning capabilities of large language models improve, evaluating and calibrating their reasoning confidence is becoming increasingly important for quantifying the uncertaint...
Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference (UMUI) is a new task that requires models to generate calibrated probability estimates for hypotheses conditioned on premises across text, audio, and video modalities. The authors create a human‑annotated evaluation set with scalar probability judgments for audio, visual, and audiovisual settings, and benchmark their approach on existing text and audio datasets. Their CLUE framework, which blends self‑consistent teacher calibration with distribution‑based confidence probing, enables a 3B‑parameter model to match or surpass zero‑shot baselines up to 32B parameters across all modalities.