The paper presents modular deep learning augmentations for next‑day wildfire spread prediction, including wind‑ and slope‑conditioned attention biases, physics‑feature retrieval‑augmented output correction, and fire‑conditioned dual‑stream gating. These modules are evaluated on five backbone models using the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, with staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The best augmented SwinUNETR model achieves an F1 score of 0.4216 and an AUC‑PR of 0.3673, while a mixed ensemble reaches 0.4292 and 0.3790, demonstrating that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality can be simultaneously improved.
By Miguel Esparza, Aydin Ayanzadeh Ahmad Mousavi, Ali Mostafavi
The paper introduces an AI surrogate modelling framework that accelerates wildfire hazard mapping across Canada. By training a multi‑task deep learning model on national‑scale data, the surrogate reproduces key outputs of the computationally intensive BurnP3+ simulator—burn probability, mean fire intensity, and mean rate of spread—in seconds instead of days or weeks. The framework includes standardized training, fine‑tuning, and evaluation protocols, domain‑specific metrics, and counterfactual evaluation to ensure robust out‑of‑distribution performance, achieving up to 806‑fold CPU speed‑up and 13% memory usage compared to the original simulator.
By Hager Radi Abdelwahed, Toluwaleke Olutayo, Chirag Goel, Jana Osea, Aldo Zaimi, Tom Swystun, Sandy Erni, Francisco Emiliano Lopez Saavedra, Yan Boulanger, Ga\'etan Marceau Caron
arXiv:2608. 05265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas.
By Quinn Ledingham, Zhengsen Xu, Yimin Zhu, Zack Dewis, Mabel Heffring, Saeid Taleghanidoozdoozan, Motasem Alkayid, Megan Greenwood, Lincoln Linlin Xu
ShearFuse-UNet is a lightweight deep learning model designed for next‑day wildfire spread prediction using multi‑modal satellite data. It incorporates three transform‑domain branches—Fast Walsh‑Hadamard Transform, Discrete Cosine Transform, and a cone‑adapted digital Shearlet residual—within each encoder block of a U‑Net backbone, fusing spectral representations via a learned SpectralFusion gate and adding Shearlet reconstruction as a residual. On the WildfireSpreadTS dataset, the model achieves an F1 score of 0.596 with only 267k parameters, outperforming a larger ResNet18‑based U‑Net and demonstrating a favorable accuracy‑efficiency trade‑off, with additional validation on the Google Next‑Day Wildfire Spread dataset.
By Ene Meco, Yingyi Luo, Emadeldeen Hamdan, Adam Watts, Ahmet Enis Cetin
arXiv:2603.02465v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Machine learning-based wildfire detection has advanced significantly using deep learning models trained on large wildfire image and video dat...
By Emadeldeen Hamdan, Ahmad Faiz Tharima, Mohd Zahirasri Mohd Tohir, Dayang Nur Sakinah Musa, Erdem Koyuncu, Adam J. Watts, Ahmet Enis Cetin
arXiv:2610.19191v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Wildfire decisions are made in hours, yet most learned spread models predict daily on targets including burned area. We propose FireGraphNet which form...
By Aiyshwariya Paulvannan Kanmani, Miguel Esparza, Ali Mostafavi