arXiv Machine Learning

SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data

arXiv:2607. 16969v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive maintenance relies on accurate Remaining Useful Life estimation, often formulated using survival analysis over multivariate time-series data.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4

SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.

By Samuel B\"ohm (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany), Lennart Purucker (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Frank Hutter (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Pascal Schlosser (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, US, CIBSS - Centre for Integrative Biological Signalling Studies, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany)
arXiv AI
Aug 25

Time-Series Retrieval for Grounding Multimodal Language Models in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

The paper explores remaining useful life (RUL) estimation using multimodal large language models (MLLMs) that are grounded through time‑series retrieval. It proposes a framework that retrieves historically similar degradation segments, combines them with the test trajectory into a visual comparison artifact, and processes this via a structured multimodal prompt. Experiments on the FD001 partition of the C‑MAPSS benchmark show that retrieval consistently improves RUL prediction, with greater benefits for larger MLLMs, while also revealing current limitations in practical prognostics and health management (PHM) settings.

By Valeriu Dimidov, Rapha\"el Frank
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Tabular Foundation Models Can Do Survival Analysis

arXiv:2601. 22259v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs.

By Da In Kim, Wei Siang Lai, Kelly W. Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

FedCMAPSS: A Benchmark for Federated Learning in Remaining Useful Life Estimation

FedCMAPSS is a new benchmark for federated learning applied to remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, built on the NASA C‑MAPSS dataset. It defines five standardized tasks that mimic real‑world industrial scenarios, from ideal IID conditions to highly heterogeneous data distributions. The paper evaluates state‑of‑the‑art federated optimization algorithms across multiple neural architectures, providing reproducible baselines and publicly available code and data splits.

By Amelia Sorrenti, Matteo Pennisi, Concetto Spampinato, Simone Palazzo
arXiv Computation and Language
3d ago

Large Language Models are Approximate Survival Estimators

arXiv:2609.38181v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival analysis estimates time-to-event outcomes from patient covariates and is widely used for medical risk assessment. Patients seeking prognostic...

By Juan M Zambrano Chaves, Peniel Argaw, Risa Ueno, Carlo Bifulco, Kristina Young, Rom Leidner, Tristan Naumann, Hoifung Poon