arXiv AI By Zhuojun Xie, Adam Abdin, Yiping Fang

Data-Driven Maintenance Optimization: Aligning Prognostic Learning with Decision Objective

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The paper investigates data‑driven predictive maintenance where health‑condition estimation is coupled with an ordering‑replacement decision model. It shows that the traditional Estimate‑Then‑Optimize (ETO) approach can lead to inconsistent, suboptimal decisions and introduces an Integrated Estimate‑Optimize (IEO) framework that directly optimizes maintenance cost, bypassing conventional accuracy metrics. Experiments on CMAPSS data demonstrate that IEO reduces mean maintenance cost by 14.8–22.7% versus ETO and 7.2–11.8% versus a decision‑oriented baseline, while also lowering failure rates and cost variability, even when prediction errors are higher.

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