arXiv Machine Learning

Neural Network-Driven Volatility Drag Mitigation under Aggressive Leverage

arXiv:2607. 23068v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper introduces a compact reformulation of a modular end-to-end neural network for global minimum-variance portfolio optimization that decouples model complexity from both look-back window length and universe size.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Financially Guided Deep Portfolio Optimization

arXiv:2605.28853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction cos...

By Rahul Fernandes, Travis Desell
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

VertiFuseX: Generalizable Financial Forecasting via Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion

VertiFuseX is a hybrid LSTM architecture that fuses multi‑scale temporal representations at the penultimate layer, stacking features from LSTM, Bi‑LSTM, and St‑LSTM branches and a parallel DNN stream. On 15 years of global equity index data, it reduces MAPE by 30‑54% and improves MAE and RMSE by over 40% compared to LSTM baselines, outperforming seven state‑of‑the‑art models across 33 metric‑dataset comparisons. The model is lightweight (675k parameters, 2.6 MB footprint) with 1.5 ms/sample inference latency and demonstrates robust, interpretable forecasting with reduced drawdowns in algorithmic trading simulations.

By Aashish Bohra, Vivek Vijay
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 21

Decision-Focused Learning for Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via KKT-Based Reformulation

The paper introduces a decision‑focused learning framework for mean‑variance portfolio optimization that embeds the Karush‑Kuhn‑Tucker optimality conditions of the lower‑level optimization into a single‑level learning problem. This approach preserves budget and short‑sale constraints while remaining tractable for standard nonlinear solvers. Experiments on real‑world ETF data across two asset universes demonstrate superior performance on multiple investment metrics and highlight the benefits of the proposed regularization.

By Kensei Nosaka, Shunnosuke Ikeda, Yuichi Takano
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

Graph-Based Modeling of Financial Volatility Dynamics

The paper introduces the Finance‑Aware Graph Spatio‑Temporal Network (FA‑GSTN) for forecasting realized volatility by treating the implied volatility surface as a dynamic graph. Nodes represent grid points on the surface, with edges capturing adaptive intra‑day spatial and explicit inter‑day temporal relationships, while finance‑aware node features (e.g., option Greeks) and a multi‑scale temporal smoothing gate address high‑frequency noise. Experiments on a large equity options dataset show FA‑GSTN achieves state‑of‑the‑art predictive accuracy (R² up to 0.473) and outperforms Vision Transformer baselines even with only one year of training data, demonstrating robustness during market stress.

By Chuanzhen Wang, Alice Zhang, Wei Chen, Michael Brown
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 29

Adaptive Momentum and Nonlinear Damping for Neural Network Training

arXiv:2602. 00334v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Momentum Stochastic Gradient Descent (mSGD) relies on a fixed momentum coefficient shared across all parameters, failing to account for the heterogeneous structure of modern loss landscapes.

By Aikaterini Karoni, Rajit Rajpal, Benedict Leimkuhler, Gabriel Stoltz
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares