arXiv Machine Learning

ReSGA: A Large Tail Risk Model for Learning Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

arXiv:2606. 04576v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively.

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 3

FinStressTS: A Parametric Synthetic Benchmark for Time-Series Forecasting in Finance

arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.

By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang

llms multimodal benchmarks safety

arXiv AI

Jun 9

Addressing Market Regime Changes and Heavy-Tailed Returns in Portfolio Optimization via Bayesian VAR and Elliptical Black-Litterman

arXiv:2606. 09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data.

By Daniil Mikriukov (University of Liverpool, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Ruoyu Sun (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Angelos Stefanidis (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Jionglong Su (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University), Zhengyong Jiang (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)

llms reinforcement-learning benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 2

FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2502. 18834v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies.

By Yifan Hu, Yuante Li, Peiyuan Liu, Yuxia Zhu, Naiqi Li, Tao Dai, Shu-tao Xia, Dawei Cheng, Changjun Jiang

benchmarks data-engineering

arXiv AI

Jun 30

Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction

arXiv:2606. 29347v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive Financial Transformer (AFT) is proposed for stock return prediction under non-stationary financial markets.

By Dishan Sarkar

llms benchmarks safety

arXiv AI

2d ago

Forecast Collapse in Time-Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2608. 14106v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation.

By Shu Wan, Miles Ma, Hank Zhu, Guangqi Liu, Stephen Wang, Qingsong Wen, Huan Liu

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 7

Distribution-free Deviation Bounds and The Role of Domain Knowledge in Learning via Model Selection with Cross-validation Risk Estimation

arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.

By Diego Marcondes, Cl\'audia Peixoto

safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 30

Financial Volatility and Risk Forecasting Incorporating a Larger Number of Realized Measures

arXiv:2411. 17136v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations.

By Qianli Zhao, Chao Wang, Richard Gerlach, Giuseppe Storti, Lingxiang Zhang

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 21

Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

arXiv:2606. 12843v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose cross-sectional equity return predictability into auditable factor contributions.

By Xiao Han, Yao Xiao, Zhen Zhang, Moxuan Zheng

benchmarks

Hugging Face Trending Papers

Jul 27

FinAbstain: Uncertainty-Calibrated Multimodal RAG for Selective Financial Forecasting

Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.

llms rag agents multimodal

arXiv AI

Aug 5

FinVerse: Financial Time-Series Benchmark

arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.

By Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

2d ago

The Nonstationarity-Complexity Tradeoff in Return Prediction

arXiv:2512. 23596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Does more data improve return prediction?

By Agostino Capponi, Chengpiao Huang, J. Antonio Sidaoui, Kaizheng Wang, Jiacheng Zou

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 5

Is attention truly all we need? An empirical study of asset pricing in pretrained RNN sparse and global attention models

arXiv:2508. 19006v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This study investigates the pre-trained RNN attention models with the mainstream attention mechanisms, such as additive attention, Luong's three attentions, global self-attention and sliding window sparse attention, for the empirical asset pricing research on the top 420 large-cap US stocks.

By Shanyan Lai

llms efficiency benchmarks

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