arXiv:2608. 10375v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions.
arXiv:2608. 04305v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Risk-aware Q-learning (RaQL) provides a model-free, two-timescale estimator for dynamic risk objectives, but its finite-budget behavior remains fragile: fixed inner-loop hyperparameters can produce unstable value estimates, persistent Bellman residuals, and inefficient sample reuse.
arXiv:2606. 04574v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets.
arXiv:2606. 03704v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making tasks such as stock recommendation and portfolio allocation typically estimate future return and risk and then select trades or allocations for an investor, and the chosen optimization objective often determines realized performance.
PPO‑HRAP introduces a hybrid regime‑aware policy that blends Proximal Policy Optimization with a volatility‑conditioned regime prior to balance upside participation and drawdown control in trading. The agent uses market and portfolio features, rewards that combine log return, VIX‑conditioned drawdown penalty, exposure deviation, and turnover cost, and outputs a blended action between the PPO actor and the regime‑derived target exposure. In backtests on SPY (2020‑2022) it achieved a 27.62% total return, 8.48% annualized return, and reduced maximum drawdown from 34.10% to 18.47%, while maintaining stable performance across multiple seeds and ranking first on total return and Sharpe ratio in single‑run cross‑asset tests on QQQ and DIA.
arXiv:2608. 12251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training.
arXiv:2607. 23370v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance.
arXiv:2608. 11785v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for financial analysis and trading, but direct trading remains challenging because the predictive capabilities required can vary across assets, decision fields, and market conditions.
arXiv:2606. 27688v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In financial forecasting, predictive performance depends not only on which model is trained, but also on how the trained model is deployed.
The paper introduces PRICE, a systematic framework for adapting Large Language Models to short‑term Bitcoin price forecasting. PRICE combines parameter‑efficient fine‑tuning with LoRA, recursive multi‑step inference, integer‑rounded numerical representation, Context‑Task‑Format prompting, and exact zero‑temperature decoding, all built on a 4‑bit quantized LLaMA‑3 8B model. Ablation studies and comparative evaluations show that each component improves accuracy and reliability, enabling PRICE to achieve the lowest forecasting errors among eight transformer‑based and time‑series foundation models.
arXiv:2509. 13374v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop and audit a history-aware financial path generator based on Denoising Levy Probabilistic Models (DLPMs) for conditional equity-index path generation.
arXiv:2606. 00060v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs.
arXiv:2607. 12455v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative strategy optimization remains largely manual, requiring domain experts to identify weak signals, tune risk-control rules, and repeatedly validate iterative revisions.