arXiv Machine Learning

Adaptive Doubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behavior

The paper introduces Adaptive Doubly Robust (ADR), an off‑policy evaluation method for ranking policies that blends adaptive importance weighting with reward regression to reduce variance. ADR is unbiased when the true user behavior model is known and, under a sufficient condition, achieves lower variance than the prior Adaptive Inverse Propensity Scoring (AIPS) approach. Experiments on synthetic data show that ADR consistently improves mean squared error over AIPS and other ranking OPE estimators across various data sizes and ranking lengths.

arXiv AI
1d ago

Revisiting scaling laws for reward optimization

The paper presents a new scaling law for reward optimization in AI alignment, showing that performance scales as Θ(√min{log(M), K}), where M is the number of preference comparisons used to train a proxy reward model and K is the KL‑divergence budget relative to a reference policy. The authors derive this law using an information‑theoretic model, prove its tightness, and validate it with extensive experiments involving a 70B gold reward model and smaller proxy models (0.6B–4B). The empirical results demonstrate a strong fit (R² 97–99 %) across different model sizes, noise levels, and optimization methods, suggesting that reward optimization behaves like a simple selection task over IID Gaussian variables with noisy feedback.

By Ali Aouad, Aymane El Gadarri, Vivek F. Farias
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 4

Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisons

The paper introduces a low‑rank framework for ranking large language models (LLMs) on task‑specific benchmarks using sparse pairwise comparisons. By modeling the task‑by‑model ability matrix as low rank, the method shares information across related tasks while preserving task‑specific differences, and it provides uncertainty‑aware ranking through debiased estimators and simultaneous confidence sets. Experiments on synthetic data and the Chatbot Arena benchmark demonstrate improved sample efficiency and tighter, better‑calibrated ranking certificates, especially in the sparse comparison regime typical of real LLM evaluations.

By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
arXiv Machine Learning
3d ago

Offline Policy Evaluation as a decision support tool for designing Adaptive Experiments

The paper explores how data from fixed A/B tests can guide the deployment of adaptive experiments using contextual bandits. By combining off‑policy evaluation with a controlled warm‑start simulation, the authors rank pre‑specified adaptive and non‑adaptive policies using doubly robust estimators. Experiments on synthetic trials and real benchmarks show that adaptive, context‑aware policies outperform fixed allocations when heterogeneity exists, but offer little advantage otherwise.

By Jo\~ao Victor Ferreira Alves, Eduardo Rocha Laurentino, Gustavo de Oliveira Kanno, Thiago Costa Rizuti da Rocha