Variance-Optimal Off-Policy Evaluation with Conjunct Effect Modeling
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arXiv:2610.08677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) for contextual bandit policies becomes challenging when action-level importance weighting incurs excessive variance. Doubly...
The paper proposes a method for allocating limited counterfactual annotation resources from multiple sources—such as domain experts and large language models—to improve off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits. By formulating an integer optimization problem that balances source-specific costs and error rates, the authors derive a majorization‑minimization algorithm that iteratively reduces estimator variance. Experiments on synthetic clinical and education bandit data demonstrate that the optimized allocation cuts mean‑squared error by over 20% compared to no annotation.
arXiv:2509. 03456v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) and off-policy learning (OPL) are foundational for decision-making in offline contextual bandits.
arXiv:2602. 09456v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose an algorithmic framework, Offline Estimation to Decisions (OE2D), that efficiently reduces contextual bandit learning with general reward function approximation to offline regression.
arXiv:2606. 00913v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-arm bandit algorithms are increasingly used in online platforms, clinical trials, and social science experiments, but valid statistical inference on their performance remains an open challenge.
arXiv:2607. 09015v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study contextual bandit problems with correlated arms and access to surrogate reward signals produced by a machine learning model, motivated by applications such as large language model (LLM) routing.