Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.
arXiv:2606. 19868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, their outputs often remain unreliable and may contain hallucinations, making uncertainty estimation (UE) essential for building trustworthy LLMs.
By Jiayi Wang, Xu-Yao Zhang
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
arXiv:2511. 16275v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.
By Xingtao Zhao, Hao Peng, Dingli Su, Xianghua Zeng, Chunyang Liu, Jinzhi Liao, Philip S. Yu
arXiv:2605. 04638v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate.
By Mingda Li, Rundong Lv, Xinyu Li, Weinan Zhang, Ting Liu
arXiv:2607. 06327v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty estimation (UE) enables LLM-powered systems to recognize when to abstain, yet existing research has predominantly focused on English.
By Andrea Alfarano, Andrea Bacciu, Saab Mansour, Amin Mantrach, Marcello Federico
arXiv:2606. 03846v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across diverse tasks, but they often generate responses that appear plausible while being factually incorrect.
By Qi Cao, Takeshi Kojima, Andrew Gambardella, Helinyi Peng, Yutaka Matsuo, Yusuke Iwasawa
arXiv:2606. 27679v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probe-based uncertainty estimation (UE) has emerged as a prominent approach to detect hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by learning uncertainty from internal model signals.
By Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen, Quang Minh Nguyen, Duc Anh Vu, Anh Tuan Luu
arXiv:2607. 03870v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses.
By Ido Amit, Ido Galil, Ran El-Yaniv
arXiv:2605. 31220v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Confidence estimation (CE), i.
By Athina Kyriakou, Dennis Ulmer, Ivan Titov
arXiv:2512. 07540v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Error Span Detection (ESD) extends automatic machine translation (MT) evaluation by localizing translation errors and labeling their severity.
By Boxuan Lyu, Haiyue Song, Hidetaka Kamigaito, Chenchen Ding, Hideki Tanaka, Masao Utiyama, Kotaro Funakoshi, Manabu Okumura
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated rapidly improving long-context capabilities, prompting a wave of benchmarks designed to evaluate them. However, existing long-context evaluations - from Needle-in-a-Haystack (NIAH) tests to more recent multi-hop reasoning and summarization tasks - predominantly measure average-case performance, and many are either saturated or lack robustness.