arXiv:2607. 04862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement.
arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.
MAGPIE‑Net is a deep‑learning framework that directly maps multitemporal FY‑4A AGRI infrared and water‑vapor observations to short‑duration heavy‑rainfall warnings for irregular station neighborhoods. By embedding a geographically adaptive, differentiable grid‑to‑station mapping and training with station‑neighborhood event losses, the model outperforms traditional gridded‑precipitation baselines, achieving higher detection rates and longer lead times in 2023 warm‑season tests over China.
arXiv:2608.12685v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: An ``Attention Residual U-Net'' method is described for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) that predicts the hourly...
MZ‑Rain is a moisture‑budget‑guided zero‑inflated sLSTM framework designed for station‑level precipitation nowcasting. It decomposes precipitation formation into moisture storage, transport, surface evaporation, and persistence pathways, each modeled by dedicated sLSTM branches, and employs an adaptive Tweedie strategy to handle the dataset’s severe zero inflation. Experiments across varied climates show MZ‑Rain outperforms strong baselines on metrics such as CSI, FAR, MSE, and MAE, especially for heavy precipitation events.
PCSDiff is a diffusion-based framework designed to correct systematic biases and enhance spatial resolution in medium-term (10‑day) precipitation forecasts. It uses a Precipitation Intensity‑aware Multi‑branch Decoder to mitigate dynamic multi‑day errors and a two‑phase conditional diffusion super‑resolution module to restore fine‑scale rainfall patterns. Evaluated over China, PCSDiff reduces RMSE by 16.1% and increases ACC by 13.9% compared to raw ECMWF forecasts, outperforming mainstream deep‑learning baselines and enabling low‑latency rolling forecasts for operational use.
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
We introduce a stretched-grid artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model with 2-km resolution over the western United States and part of the Northeast Pacific and approximately 31-km resol...
UniGIO is a generative framework that models global in‑situ weather dynamics directly from incomplete GIO data, unifying forecasting, imputation, and generation across arbitrary missing ratios. It employs an Observation Mixer, Event Aligner, Adaptive Temporal Mixer, and a Mixture‑of‑Experts structure to capture station‑level complementarity, temporal dependencies, and extreme events, refining outputs with a Local Refiner. Experiments on the Weather‑5K dataset show state‑of‑the‑art performance, improving accuracy, fidelity, and extreme event capture by 11%, 12%, and 5% respectively.
arXiv:2511. 23043v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model providing ensembles of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary ensemble size and forecast length.
arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...
The paper introduces PRISMA, a generative framework that separates precipitation prior training from sensor-specific constraints, allowing flexible composition of heterogeneous satellite observations without retraining the core model. By integrating FY‑4B/AGRI, GPM/GMI, F16‑F18 SSMIS, and GPM/DPR‑Ka data, PRISMA consistently improves precipitation‑estimation accuracy and outperforms IMERG Final in CRPS and RMSE while maintaining positive Brier skill across thresholds. The framework supports rapid, accurate ensemble precipitation estimates, enhancing satellite‑based monitoring for hydrometeorological hazards.
The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.