The paper introduces STOIC, a post‑hoc residual calibration framework that enhances uncertainty quantification for energy time series over graphs. STOIC combines spatial‑temporal graph neural network forecasts with in‑context learning from tabular foundation models to estimate feature‑conditional residual quantiles, thereby capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. It is designed as a conformal‑inspired method that does not require task‑specific retraining of the calibration model.
arXiv:2606. 31804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems.
arXiv:2606. 00506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning.
arXiv:2510. 15780v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations.
arXiv:2607. 20587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation.
arXiv:2606. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes.
arXiv:2607. 23165v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose ABF-T-GLCP, a model-agnostic framework for forecasting and uncertainty quantification in nonstationary multivariate time series.
The paper introduces IMPACT, a physics‑informed multimodal deep‑learning framework that forecasts photovoltaic power 10–110 minutes ahead with probabilistic outputs. It uses a four‑branch architecture to encode plant‑level temporal history, inverter‑level spatial cloud dynamics, known‑future solar geometry, and current meteorological data, fusing them via gated cross‑attention. The model outperforms 14 baselines, achieving a forecast skill score of 0.2950 and maintaining strong performance under overcast and variable sky conditions.
Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.
arXiv:2608. 01775v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compound flooding in managed coastal systems is influenced by hydrological conditions and water-management activity observed across multiple monitoring stations.
arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.
arXiv:2608. 12624v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Structure-preserving machine learning embeds physical structure directly into model architectures, yet uncertainty quantification (UQ) for such hard-constrained models remains limited because standard UQ methods may violate the encoded admissibility conditions, require architectural modifications, or impose substantial computational costs.
arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.