Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but pooled calibration averages over heterogeneous regions and can mask regional undercoverage in safety-critical subgroups. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and, at test time, draws a local calibration buffer from the query's best-matching unit (BMU) cell or a fixed grid neighborhood.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
By Abhineet Agarwal, Fange Xiao, Rebecca Barter, Omer Ronen, Boyu Fan, Bin Yu
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov
arXiv:2609.17091v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Multi-target regression requires a model to simultaneously predict several related outputs. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free, finite-sam...
By Sylvain Rousseau (Heudiasyc), Soundouss Messoudi (Heudiasyc)
arXiv:2608.23638v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Two analysts who calibrate the same predictive model on independent samples will deploy different prediction sets every time, because the calibration...
By Marios Papamichalis, Regina Ruane, Theofanis Papamichalis
arXiv:2607. 18088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard evaluation of many recognition systems contains distribution shift by construction, since benchmarks place disjoint conditions in the training and test splits.
By Weijia Han, Lisha Qu