The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.
By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv:2610.27364v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: In joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPA), an encoder and a predictor are trained together to produce a representation that minimizes the er...
By Mosh Levy, Aly Lidayan, Yoav Goldberg
arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?
By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv:2607. 19689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of recalibrating an online predictor [KE17, OKS24]: given an arbitrary "hint" sequence of forecasts, the learner must output new predictions that are calibrated while incurring small excess error relative to the original forecasts, under a proper loss.
By Lunjia Hu, Kevin Tian, Chutong Yang
arXiv:2502. 15131v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $\sigma(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $\sigma$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$.
By Yufan Li, Pragya Sur
The paper investigates the computational and statistical challenges of the calibration distance, a key metric for measuring miscalibration in probabilistic predictors. It presents an efficient algorithm for exact computation when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, and shows that the problem becomes NP‑hard if either assumption is dropped. The authors also provide a polynomial‑time approximation scheme for the general case and establish tight sample complexity bounds for estimating the calibration distance from data.
By Mingda Qiao