Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control

Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control (OQRC) is a new method that extends conformal risk control to quantile-based risk measures while avoiding excessive conservatism and providing rigorous finite-sample guarantees. It works by partitioning the loss space using ordered calibration losses, estimating the distribution of test losses in each bin, and bounding the risk by the maximum loss in each bin. The authors prove that OQRC achieves tight risk control bounds with a finite-sample guarantee that converges at a rate of π(n−½), and experiments show it can reduce the risk gap by up to 78.64% on common benchmarks.

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