arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
arXiv:2608. 08204v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work proposes deep nonparametric Instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR), a two-stage estimator that combines conditional diffusion modeling with a kernel-smoothed conditional moment formulation.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
arXiv:2505.13299v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the...
arXiv:2606. 28652v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Online high-dimensional regression requires algorithms that can update sequentially while preserving structural sparsity.
Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control (OQRC) is a new method that extends conformal risk control to quantile-based risk measures while avoiding excessive conservatism and providing rigorous finite-sample guarantees. It works by partitioning the loss space using ordered calibration losses, estimating the distribution of test losses in each bin, and bounding the risk by the maximum loss in each bin. The authors prove that OQRC achieves tight risk control bounds with a finite-sample guarantee that converges at a rate of π(n−½), and experiments show it can reduce the risk gap by up to 78.64% on common benchmarks.
arXiv:2607. 20309v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Covariate shift often occurs because, in many real applications, the source and the target observations may be generated from different distributions.
arXiv:2609. 13040v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study loss-based filtering for finite-sum optimization with a subset of corrupted component functions whose gradients may be highly unreliable.
Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control (OQRC) is a new method that extends conformal risk control to quantile-based risk measures. It partitions the loss space using ordered calibration losses, estimates the distribution of test losses in each bin, and upper-bounds the risk by the maximum loss per bin. The approach guarantees finite-sample validity, achieving tight risk control bounds that converge at a rate of σ(n^{-1/2}) and reducing the risk gap by up to 78.64% in experiments.
arXiv:2605. 04847v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge.
arXiv:2608.29789v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliabl...
arXiv:2607. 04431v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quantile regression provides a powerful tool for summarizing the conditional distribution of a real-valued random variable (r.