The paper extends ex‑ante evaluation of Predict‑Then‑Optimize methods from binary to multiclass classification by simulating predictions at specified performance levels and mapping prediction errors to decision regret. It introduces a first‑order approximation that estimates regret from individual misclassifications, reducing computational effort. Experiments show the simulation accurately reproduces target performance and that the approximation is close for some problems, though it falters when simultaneous misclassifications interact significantly.
By Pieter Smet
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
By Ashwin Singh, Carlos Castillo
arXiv:2609.09855v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayes...
By Benedikt H\"oltgen
The paper introduces a new consistency criterion for auditing decision systems that combines ensemble margin with local prediction variability to address predictive multiplicity, or the Rashomon effect. It shows that finite ensembles converge to the expected model’s consistency score as ensemble size and sample count grow, and demonstrates that ensembling models from the Rashomon set reduces unchecked incorrect predictions while keeping diversions moderate. Experiments on transformer and fine‑tuned language models for NLP and tabular classification confirm the method’s effectiveness and stronger alignment with existing multiplicity metrics.
By Sinjini Banerjee, Tim Marrinan, Anand D. Sarwate
arXiv:2602. 04402v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast.
By Julian Rodemann, Unai Fischer-Abaigar, James Bailie, Krikamol Muandet
arXiv:2609.14065v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: When algorithmic predictions inform people's decisions, the models we deploy are performative and actively shape the data we see. This feedback loop be...
By Gabriele Farina, Juan Carlos Perdomo