The paper introduces the concept of observational multiplicity, where multiple probabilistic classifiers can perform similarly yet produce conflicting predictions, undermining interpretability and safety. It proposes measuring this arbitrariness through a regret metric that captures how predictions could shift with different training labels. The authors present a general method to estimate regret, show it varies across dataset groups, and discuss its use for safety via abstention and targeted data collection.
By Erin George, Deanna Needell, Berk Ustun
arXiv:2606. 19587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task.
By Beichen Wan, Mo Liu
arXiv:2503.00626v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Data-driven optimization aims to translate a machine learning model into decision-making by optimizing decisions on estimated costs. Such a pipelin...
By Adam N. Elmachtoub, Henry Lam, Haixiang Lan, Haofeng Zhang
arXiv:2507.06529v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful paradigm for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Traditional BO methods typically rely on separate h...
By Fengxue Zhang, Yuxin Chen
The paper compares two strategies for contextual decision making: predict‑then‑optimize (PtO), which learns the conditional expected objective, and generate‑then‑optimize (GtO), which learns conditional uncertainty and optimizes over generated scenarios. It analyzes how the choice of learning target influences statistical accuracy and optimization tractability, showing that smoothness can compensate for GtO’s higher dimensionality. The study also discusses tradeoffs in convexity preservation, scenario‑wise convexity, and model flexibility, supported by synthetic experiments and a real case study.
By L. Jeff Hong, Weihuan Huang, Xinyao Li
arXiv:2610.10186v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is widely used as a standard approach for expensive black-box optimization. However, BO algorithms often involve parameters...
By Satoshi Katayama, Shoyo Hunt, Shintaro Masuda, Masayuki Karasuyama
arXiv:2607. 20497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prompt optimization for text classification spans diverse approaches, from demonstration selection to exploration-based search to error-driven diagnosis, each with known but incompletely characterized strengths and limitations.
By Yueying Cui, Renhao Xue, Yi Zhang, Mukul Prasad
The paper introduces Foreclassing, a new machine learning problem where the class label of a time series is defined by its future observations. It provides a mathematical formulation, theoretical results on how future information influences Bayes risk and classification error, and proposes ForeClassNet, a neural network that jointly forecasts and classifies while accounting for uncertainty. Experiments across weather, energy, and finance datasets show that Foreclassing can improve classification accuracy, probabilistic predictions, and downstream decision-making compared to conventional methods.
By Daniel Andrew Coulson, Martin T. Wells
arXiv:2307. 05213v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many real-world optimization problems contain parameters that are unknown before deployment time, either due to stochasticity or to lack of information (e.
By Mattia Silvestri, Senne Berden, Jayanta Mandi, Ali \.Irfan Mahmuto\u{g}ullar{\i}, Brandon Amos, Tias Guns, Michele Lombardi
The paper investigates how treating the optimization objective as a design variable can improve Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction in predictive maintenance. Five model architectures are compared under single‑objective and multi‑objective hyperparameter optimization, with the latter using NSGA‑II and Entropy‑CRITIC weighting to balance accuracy and prediction timeliness. Results on NASA C‑MAPSS and BackBlaze datasets show that multi‑objective optimization reduces directional imbalance in predictions and can alter model rankings, highlighting the importance of objective choice in RUL modeling.
By Tugrul Cabir Hakyemez, Ener Uras Gokhan
arXiv:2607. 04033v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Optimizer selection for large-scale model training has become a system-level design decision constrained jointly by compute, memory, tuning budget, and task diversity, yet the landscape of over one hundred methods remains fragmented.
By Siyuan Li, Jiabao Pan, Yumou Liu, Zhuoli Ouyang, Xin Jin, Xinglong Xu, Jingxuan Wei, Shengye Pang, Jintao Che, Xuanhe Zhou, Conghui He, Cheng Tan
arXiv:2607. 28170v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Optimal decision trees (ODTs) are compact, interpretable machine learning models that globally optimize a given objective, but their scalability remains challenging.
By Jacobus G. M. van der Linden, Mim van den Bos, Emir Demirovi\'c