arXiv Statistics ML By Bokgyeong Kang, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Erin M. Schliep, Robert S. Schick

Divide-and-Conquer Neural Bayes Estimation for Spatial and Spatiotemporal Point Process Models

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The paper introduces a divide-and-conquer neural Bayes estimation framework for spatial and spatiotemporal point process models. It uses transformer-based architectures on partitions of the domain and an attention mechanism to combine local summaries, enabling direct inference from raw point pattern data. Simulation studies show reliable inference with better scalability than existing neural and classical likelihood-based methods, and the approach is applied to whale call data in Cape Cod Bay, producing parameter estimates and credible intervals at negligible cost after training.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Gaussian Process Decorrelation for Spatiotemporal Deep Learning-Based Snow Water Equivalent Prediction

The paper proposes a method for predicting future snow water equivalent (SWE) across the Western United States by first removing spatial correlations using a Gaussian Process-based linear transformation, then training a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network on the decorrelated data. This separation of spatial and temporal components improves predictive accuracy compared to baseline models. Additionally, the authors incorporate conformal prediction to provide distribution‑free uncertainty estimates for SWE forecasts.

By Colin Fenster, Adrienne Marshall, Soutir Bandyopadhyay, Daniel McKenzie