arXiv AI By Liyin Chen, Souvick Mukherjee, Ines Maria De Carvalho Lains, Nazlee Zebardast, Mengyu Wang, Tobias Elze, Jason I. Comander

Diagnostic-Guided Longitudinal Modeling for Forecasting Retinal Atrophy Progression

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The study proposes a diagnostic-guided approach to choose between stochastic and deterministic longitudinal imaging models based on whether inter-visit changes are driven by disease progression or acquisition variability. Applied to a large, heterogeneous Optos fundus autofluorescence archive, the diagnostic revealed weak time-dependent changes and limited benefit from stochastic models, leading to the development of the deterministic Temporal Retinal U‑Net (TRU). TRU outperformed other classical and deep‑learning comparators on image‑level and eye‑specific progression metrics across held‑out and independent zero‑shot transfer cohorts, though with slightly lower precision in a smaller cross‑vendor cohort.

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