arXiv Machine Learning By Wenbin Zhou, Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Shixiang Zhu

Calibrating Ambiguity Set via Diagnostic Transport for Distributionally Robust Optimization

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The paper introduces Diagnostic-Transport DRO (DT‑DRO), a method that calibrates the geometry of the ambiguity set in distributionally robust optimization using held‑out data. By applying the conditional probability integral transform to detect systematic probability misallocation, DT‑DRO adjusts both the ambiguity‑set center and ground cost through an outcome‑level transport, yielding a computationally tractable dual reformulation. The authors provide theoretical guarantees on ambiguity radii and decision‑risk bounds that improve as estimation errors shrink, and demonstrate that DT‑DRO can remove the robustness floor caused by model misspecification in synthetic and power‑outage experiments.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Control

arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.

By Wenbin Zhou, Shixiang Zhu