Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for fMRI Functional Connectivity via Simulation-Based Inference

The paper introduces a Bayesian framework that models BOLD dynamics as coupled Ornstein‑Uhlenbeck processes and uses Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation to produce connectivity posteriors while accounting for measurement noise. Applied to 28 healthy controls scanned at 7T, the method quantifies uncertainty from scanner noise, subject variability, and scan length, revealing that about 46 voxels per ROI and 7 minutes of 7T data suffice for 90% of asymptotic precision. It also shows that 7T achieves within‑session precision 40% faster than 3T and requires roughly 37 times less per‑subject scan time to reach population‑level convergence, offering concrete, scanner‑specific guidance for protocol optimization.

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