SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
GenONet introduces a Spatio-Temporal U-DeepONet architecture that serves as a generator in a GAN framework for high‑resolution precipitation nowcasting up to three hours ahead. By learning continuous‑time precipitation dynamics with a Deep Operator Network and enforcing physics through a moisture‑conservation loss, the model produces sharp, physically consistent forecasts that outperform baselines, especially for high‑intensity events and longer lead times. Ablation studies confirm the added value of the physics‑informed regularizer and the synergy of operator learning with adversarial training.
By Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohammad Khanjani
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
By Yun-Ye Cai, Hsuan-Tien Lin
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
arXiv:2607. 25687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Full-field reconstruction of air pollution is essential for evaluating pollution exposure and supporting public health decision-making.
By Abhishek A. Sabnis, Mihai Mitrea, Lya Lugon, Karine Sartelet, Marc Bocquet, Xiaoyuan Cheng, Shupeng Zhu, Sibo Cheng
IRENE is a deep learning model that provides probabilistic short‑range precipitation nowcasts over Italy at 1 km spatial and 5‑minute temporal resolution. It uses an encoder–forecaster architecture built on multi‑scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs) and is trained on national radar composites, with an importance‑sampling scheme and the almost‑fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score as its primary loss. Three training variants—standard, adversarial (IRENE‑GAN), and spectrally constrained (IRENE‑GAN‑RAPSD)—outperform benchmark methods STEPS and DGMR in probabilistic skill, though the advantage in mean absolute error is limited to the first 90 minutes.
By Alessandro Camilletti, Gabriele Franch, Elena Tomasi, Marco Cristoforetti
arXiv:2603. 09868v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurately quantifying terrestrial carbon exchange is essential for climate policy and carbon accounting, yet models must generalize to ecosystems underrepresented in sparse eddy covariance observations.
By Aleksei Rozanov, Arvind Renganathan, Yimeng Zhang, Vipin Kumar
This study introduces the first controlled benchmark of generative models for weather data assimilation using real station observations from 11,849 NOAA MADIS stations across the U.S. It evaluates key design choices—diffusion vs. flow matching, pixel vs. latent-space formulations, and inference-time conditioning strategies—against a classical 3D-Var baseline. The benchmark finds that learned generative priors and full-gradient guidance improve RMSE over ERA5, while other design variations offer minimal benefit, especially under sparse observation conditions.
By Ruizhe Huang, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Sherrie Wang
arXiv:2509. 24517v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Development of modern deep learning methods has been driven primarily by the push for improving model efficacy (accuracy metrics), leading to large-scale models that require massive computational resources and result in considerable carbon footprint across the model lifecycle.
By Sophia N. Wilson, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Raghavendra Selvan
arXiv:2507. 23615v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data augmentation is becoming increasingly important across various areas of time series analysis, including forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection.
By Luis Roque, Vitor Cerqueira, Carlos Soares, Luis Torgo
The paper investigates whether the stable GAN architecture R3GAN can improve time‑series imputation when adapted to 1‑D temporal data. Using a coarse‑to‑fine refinement framework and a frequency‑domain discriminator, the authors evaluate 14 saved configurations across three datasets and find a negative result: most configurations either show negligible improvement or degrade performance compared to baseline methods. The study highlights that the usual argument—GANs optimize distributional objectives rather than point‑wise ones—does not fully explain the lack of benefit, and it poses an open problem regarding why a learned discriminator fails to provide useful refinement gradients while diffusion denoisers succeed, offering practical guidance on when adversarial refinement may be worthwhile.
By Yufeng He
arXiv:2606. 17413v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Space-based monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is essential for constraining the global carbon budget.
By Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga, Felix Jimenez, Jack Grosskreuz, Jiazheng Wang, Jonathan Hobbs, Matthias Katzfuss