arXiv:2608. 20337v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accounting for information flow on the path space of trajectories of a nonnegative martingale yields exact variational identities for it, even at arbitrary random times.
arXiv:2609.27766v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In safe hypothesis testing with test supermartingals, Ville's inequality provides anytime-valid type-I error guarantees for every significance level...
The paper proves that in time‑series validation three desirable properties—training sufficiency, test coverage, and temporal causality—cannot all be satisfied simultaneously. It introduces quantitative bounds involving the smallest training fraction (α), test coverage (β), future training fraction (Λ), and distance to nearest future training point (δ), showing that exceeding the causal frontier α+β=1 requires training on future data that must lie within (1−α)T of a test point. The authors demonstrate that the impact of such future leakage depends on distance rather than amount, and compare different validation schemes (walk‑forward, k‑fold, purged k‑fold) in terms of their position on this Pareto frontier, illustrating the trade‑offs with empirical results on noise data.
The paper introduces a two-player zero-sum repeated game between a learner and nature that simultaneously captures Bayesian updating and an exact decomposition of exponential-weights regret. The game’s terminal payoff reflects the maximum gain a comparator can achieve given a fixed relative entropy from the prior, while the one-step constraint limits nature’s move by an information budget. The resulting regret splits into three precise components—per-round information loss, an additive retempering drift, and the comparator’s information relative to the prior—providing a unified framework that explains concentration phenomena, large-deviation bounds, and various learning methods such as bandits, posterior sampling, aggregation, and boosting.
arXiv:2608. 09450v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Betting-based sequential tests and Blackwell approachability are linked by a rate-explicit reduction through support-function residuals.
arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.
arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.
arXiv:2606. 09668v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Contextual queueing bandits provide a framework for learning to schedule heterogeneous jobs under unknown context-dependent service rates.
arXiv:2504. 19952v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present two general lower bounds for stopping times of sequential tests between arbitrary composite nulls $\mathcal P$ and alternatives $\mathcal Q$.
arXiv:2604. 10727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical information-theoretic learning bounds typically rely on KL mutual information and moment-generating-function (MGF) arguments, which are well matched to bounded or sub-Gaussian losses but can be ineffective when losses or rewards are heavy-tailed.
arXiv:2608. 06362v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deciding which of two agents is stronger means playing games until skill outweighs luck, and every game costs money, model inference, or expert time.
arXiv:2511.05620v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study worst-case dynamic regret of specific multi-armed bandit algorithms on piecewise-stationary instances with at most one breakpoint. Our con...
arXiv:2606. 25170v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study PAC learning in tabular discounted Markov decision processes with exogenous i.