arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.
arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.
The paper investigates the computational and statistical challenges of the calibration distance, a key metric for measuring miscalibration in probabilistic predictors. It presents an efficient algorithm for exact computation when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, and shows that the problem becomes NP‑hard if either assumption is dropped. The authors also provide a polynomial‑time approximation scheme for the general case and establish tight sample complexity bounds for estimating the calibration distance from data.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
arXiv:2610. 22955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: For non-parametric binary classification in the presence of an adversary, we prove an optimal quantitative estimate for adversarial classifiers controlling geometric accuracy, as measured by the Hausdorff distance to the Bayes classifier, in terms or their robustness, as encoded by the adversarial budget $\varepsilon$.
arXiv:2511. 18945v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators.
arXiv:2608. 09768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken.
arXiv:2601.11701v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small ch...
arXiv:2606. 25004v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In machine learning, model certification has been identified as an important method for gaining assurance about a model's trustworthiness and quality.
arXiv:2510. 22021v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Safety-critical applications of machine learning require uncertainty estimates that support reliable worst-case analysis.
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv:2510.17072v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Regression with non-Euclidean responses---e.g., probability distributions, networks, symmetric positive-definite matrices, and compositions---has b...