Random Hazard Forests (RHF) is a survival tree ensemble that models how a patient's hazard changes over continuous time as new measurements arrive. RHF directly estimates a nonparametric hazard likelihood for predictable covariate processes, using an efficient working model to guide tree construction and then estimating flexible time‑varying hazards at each terminal node. By routing each tree based on the covariate state immediately before each time point, RHF can handle irregular and asynchronous covariate updates, and averaging across trees yields a pathwise hazard estimate that accurately captures changing risk in simulations and an intensive‑care application.
arXiv:2607. 21817v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Longitudinal studies often collect data at sparse, irregular, and unequally spaced time points.
The paper introduces a response‑aware patient dynamics model that explicitly captures how respiratory support alters a patient’s short‑term physiological trajectory. By decomposing predicted physiological change into baseline dynamics and support‑associated deviations anchored to room‑air reference, the model updates latent patient states across a forecast horizon. Experiments on ICU cohorts from two institutions show that the model matches baseline trajectory predictions overall and consistently improves performance when physiological states are changing.
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy. whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
SepsisLens is a new model for early sepsis warning that preserves the structure of individual physiological signals while predicting risk. It uses observation-aware representations to encode each variable’s dynamics and a shared temporal encoder to maintain variable axes, then composes multi-horizon risk through a StructuredRiskHead that includes variable-level and organ-level components. The model was evaluated on three public ICU cohorts and one private-hospital cohort, achieving strong discrimination and lower alert burden at matched recall on MIMIC-IV, with ablations confirming the design choices.
arXiv:2606. 18281v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are central to treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
arXiv:2609.36144v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic health records provide irregular observations of latent patient states that evolve continuously over time. Recent autoregressive models cond...
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
arXiv:2609.23780v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many real-world decisions require prioritizing high-risk cases, such as clinicians prioritizing high-risk patients before lower-risk ones. Falling rule...
arXiv:2603.29475v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and...
arXiv:2606. 19140v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate survival prediction is essential for personalized treatment planning in head and neck cancer, yet remains challenging due to the heterogeneous and high-dimensional nature of multimodal clinical data.