arXiv Machine Learning

Falling Trees: A Model Class for Interpretable Risk Prioritization

arXiv AI
Jun 9

TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs

arXiv:2606. 09030v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Clinical early warning systems built on electronic health records, in which clinical observations are recorded as irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS), must deliver both calibrated risk scores for patient triage and interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify.

By Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim, Joonhyung Park, Hangyul Yoon, Eunho Yang
arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 25

Random Hazard Forests

Random Hazard Forests (RHF) is a survival tree ensemble that models how a patient's hazard changes over continuous time as new measurements arrive. RHF directly estimates a nonparametric hazard likelihood for predictable covariate processes, using an efficient working model to guide tree construction and then estimating flexible time‑varying hazards at each terminal node. By routing each tree based on the covariate state immediately before each time point, RHF can handle irregular and asynchronous covariate updates, and averaging across trees yields a pathwise hazard estimate that accurately captures changing risk in simulations and an intensive‑care application.

By Hemant Ishwaran, Eileen M. Hsich, Udaya B. Kogalur, Donald K. K. Lee