Contextual Decision Making: Predictive or Generative

The paper compares two strategies for contextual decision making: predict‑then‑optimize (PtO), which learns the conditional expected objective, and generate‑then‑optimize (GtO), which learns conditional uncertainty and optimizes over generated scenarios. It analyzes how the choice of learning target influences statistical accuracy and optimization tractability, showing that smoothness can compensate for GtO’s higher dimensionality. The study also discusses tradeoffs in convexity preservation, scenario‑wise convexity, and model flexibility, supported by synthetic experiments and a real case study.

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