arXiv Machine Learning

Calibrating Prediction Timeliness Through Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

The paper investigates how treating the optimization objective as a design variable can improve Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction in predictive maintenance. Five model architectures are compared under single‑objective and multi‑objective hyperparameter optimization, with the latter using NSGA‑II and Entropy‑CRITIC weighting to balance accuracy and prediction timeliness. Results on NASA C‑MAPSS and BackBlaze datasets show that multi‑objective optimization reduces directional imbalance in predictions and can alter model rankings, highlighting the importance of objective choice in RUL modeling.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

FedCMAPSS: A Benchmark for Federated Learning in Remaining Useful Life Estimation

FedCMAPSS is a new benchmark for federated learning applied to remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, built on the NASA C‑MAPSS dataset. It defines five standardized tasks that mimic real‑world industrial scenarios, from ideal IID conditions to highly heterogeneous data distributions. The paper evaluates state‑of‑the‑art federated optimization algorithms across multiple neural architectures, providing reproducible baselines and publicly available code and data splits.

By Amelia Sorrenti, Matteo Pennisi, Concetto Spampinato, Simone Palazzo
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Aurora-X: Built for Extreme Time Series Forecasting

Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.

By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

tidyHEBO: Robust General-Purpose Bayesian Optimization with Model-Consistent Warping and Pareto Search

tidyHEBO is a BoTorch-native Bayesian optimization tool that jointly applies Yeo-Johnson output warping to a Gaussian‑process surrogate, evaluates acquisition functions on the original objective scale, and conducts constrained cumulative Pareto search across multiple acquisition criteria. Using only default settings, it outperformed other methods on the Olympus benchmark and performed strongly on synthetic, Needle‑in‑a‑Haystack, and Bayesmark tasks, while adaptive batching offered a trade‑off between parallelization and optimization quality. These results position tidyHEBO as a robust, reproducible optimizer suitable for diverse practical problems, including scientific applications and hyperparameter tuning.

By L. A. Zhukov, E. V. Shaburova, D. V. Antonets