The study examines whether large language models (LLMs) can accurately simulate individual financial users by conducting a longitudinal paper‑trading experiment with 80 participants. Using a rolling next‑day prediction protocol, the researchers compared LLM predictions to a simple recent‑activity persistence baseline across multiple behavioral fidelity levels, from trade occurrence to asset selection and portfolio outcomes. Results show that no LLM consistently outperforms the baseline, with fidelity decreasing at finer behavioral granularity, and that recent trading history largely drives activity predictions while asset selection depends more on available evidence.
By Jiajie He, Jiangyuan Hong, Xintong Chen, Dongling Ni, Wenjin Liu
Large language models (LLMs) are being tested as simulators of individual financial decision-making. In a controlled paper‑trading experiment with 120 volunteers, the study evaluated whether an LLM could predict a participant’s next‑day trading action, chosen security, and transaction size using only pre‑cutoff information. Results showed that including market context improved predictions of actions and tickers, but sizing remained challenging, and the models tended to over‑predict hold actions, under‑predict sells, and simplify multi‑security trades.
By Jiajie He, Jiangyuan Hong, Dongling Ni, Wenjin Liu, Xintong Chen
arXiv:2606. 02798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many decision-support settings require systems that adapt to individual users, but evaluation data for this problem remain limited.
By Liangwei Yang, Jielin Qiu, Zixiang Chen, Ming Zhu, Juntao Tan, Zhiwei Liu, Wenting Zhao, Zhujun Lan, Akshara Prabhakar, Silvio Savarese, Huan Wang, Shelby Heinecke
arXiv:2608. 04095v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used as personalized assistants in high-stakes domains such as financial advising, yet it remains unclear whether they can maintain and update an individualized user model over long horizons.
By Ben Wang, Kang Zhou, Lifan Guo, Feng Chen, Chi Zhang
The study investigates whether adding inference-time reasoning to large language models (LLMs) improves trading performance. Using a controlled experiment across DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini models, the authors varied reasoning effort while keeping other variables constant and evaluated over a full year of U.S. equities under three input conditions. Results show that additional reasoning does not reliably increase net portfolio returns and can even lead to nonmonotonic performance and unstable outcomes.
By Jiayi Chen, Guiling Wang
EvolveTrade is a self‑evolving framework that treats the system prompt of a tool‑using LLM trading agent as a text‑parameterized policy. After each update interval, a Policy Agent revises this policy using accumulated decision traces and portfolio feedback while keeping the backbone LLM fixed, allowing the agent to refine its information‑acquisition and portfolio‑construction procedures over time. Experiments across multiple market regimes and two LLM backbones show that EvolveTrade often improves Sharpe Ratio and Cumulative Return over fixed‑policy baselines, with behavioral analyses indicating increased code‑mediated analysis and regime‑relevant computations.
By Sehee Kim, Yumin Choi, Minki Kang, Sung Ju Hwang
arXiv:2606. 31461v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Niche asset markets, such as Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) weapon skins, are small, volatile, and heavily driven by community discussions and platform rules.
By Yao Shi, Kingfung Luo, Nan Tang, Yuyu Luo
arXiv:2605. 28850v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study behavioral alignment and representation dynamics of large language model (LLM) agents in financial decision environments.
By Weicheng Xue
arXiv:2608. 11785v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for financial analysis and trading, but direct trading remains challenging because the predictive capabilities required can vary across assets, decision fields, and market conditions.
By Chang Zhou, Xingtong Yu, Minbin Huang, Zhennan Wu, Yuan Fang, Hong Cheng, Xinming Zhang
arXiv:2608.28399v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: In financial markets, a sequential policy that reacts systematically to price movements may become predictable to other market participants. This p...
By Yupeng Zhang, Liuyuan Jiang, Hongyi Huang, Bingheng Li, Lisha Chen
arXiv:2608.22852v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in investment decision-making, yet prior work shows that they exhibit systematic, model-specific inv...
By Sahong Park, Suhwan Park, Hoyoung Lee, Gakyung Kwon, Wonbin Ahn, Jaewon Choi, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Yoon Kim, Chanyeol Choi, Hyeongwoo Kong, Yongjae Lee
arXiv:2607. 11141v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) based agents are beginning to participate in portfolio construction and market analysis, where decisions must be justified under evolving information and risk constraints.
By Changlun Li, Peixian Ma, Qiqi Duan, Zhenyu Lin, Peineng Wu