RetailAgent: Structured Adverse Timing in Self-Conditioned Multimodal LLM Trading Agents
Read the original on arXiv AI →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv AI.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv AI.
The study examines whether large language models (LLMs) can accurately simulate individual financial users by conducting a longitudinal paper‑trading experiment with 80 participants. Using a rolling next‑day prediction protocol, the researchers compared LLM predictions to a simple recent‑activity persistence baseline across multiple behavioral fidelity levels, from trade occurrence to asset selection and portfolio outcomes. Results show that no LLM consistently outperforms the baseline, with fidelity decreasing at finer behavioral granularity, and that recent trading history largely drives activity predictions while asset selection depends more on available evidence.
arXiv:2608. 04095v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used as personalized assistants in high-stakes domains such as financial advising, yet it remains unclear whether they can maintain and update an individualized user model over long horizons.
arXiv:2606. 31522v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous financial agents initialized with explicit behavioral mandates such as "preserve capital" or "avoid speculative bets" that are meant to govern every decision throughout deployment.
META (Memory Enhanced Trading Agent) is a new agent-based trading framework that augments large language models with episodic memory. It combines specialized indicator agents—such as Trend, MACD, Stochastic, RSI, SMA, AVWAP, and Heikin‑Ashi—with a Decision Agent that fuses their reports, while a Memory module retrieves and updates past trading episodes encoded as market state embeddings with outcomes and reflections. By recalling relevant experiences and adaptively reweighting signals under similar market regimes, META improves directional accuracy and robustness in short‑horizon evaluations, offering regime‑aware, interpretable, and low‑latency decision‑making for financial trading.
Large language models (LLMs) are being tested as simulators of individual financial decision-making. In a controlled paper‑trading experiment with 120 volunteers, the study evaluated whether an LLM could predict a participant’s next‑day trading action, chosen security, and transaction size using only pre‑cutoff information. Results showed that including market context improved predictions of actions and tickers, but sizing remained challenging, and the models tended to over‑predict hold actions, under‑predict sells, and simplify multi‑security trades.
arXiv:2407. 18957v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.