The paper presents a technique that augments data‑driven polynomial chaos expansion surrogate models with uncertainty quantification through jackknife‑based conformal prediction. By leveraging the linearity of the regression model, leave‑one‑out residuals and predictions are computed analytically, avoiding repeated retraining and eliminating the need for a hold‑out dataset. The method is validated on benchmark models and applied to electrical engineering design cases, demonstrating accurate predictive intervals even with small, low‑accuracy training sets, while showing that more training data improves coverage and interval tightness.
arXiv:2606. 17233v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In many engineering applications, a single high-fidelity model produces multiple quantities of interest (QoIs) under the same input parameters, e.
arXiv:2507.04553v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliability analysis traditionally relies on deterministic simulators, where identical inputs yield identical outputs. However, many real-wor...
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2606. 10734v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.
Threshold-Aware Conformal Routing (TACR) is a method that decides whether to use a fast surrogate model or a full simulator based on whether the surrogate’s conformal interval lies entirely on one side of a fixed decision threshold. TACR learns input‑dependent interval widths that are tighter near the threshold, preserving distribution‑free coverage while reducing the number of simulator calls. Experiments on scientific and engineering datasets show TACR cuts simulator deferrals by 14‑75% compared to standard conformal prediction, and by an additional 10‑24% over a variant without threshold‑aware weighting.
arXiv:2606. 09923v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers.
arXiv:2604.22391v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines point predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive...
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2511.03756v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present a bifidelity Karhunen--Lo\`{e}ve expansion (KLE) surrogate model for field-valued quantities of interest (QoIs) under uncertain in...
arXiv:2606. 31600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
arXiv:2601. 21455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length.