arXiv Machine Learning By Shiwei Tan, Huzefa Rangwala, Danielle C. Maddix

Threshold-Aware Conformal Routing

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Threshold-Aware Conformal Routing (TACR) is a method that decides whether to use a fast surrogate model or a full simulator based on whether the surrogate’s conformal interval lies entirely on one side of a fixed decision threshold. TACR learns input‑dependent interval widths that are tighter near the threshold, preserving distribution‑free coverage while reducing the number of simulator calls. Experiments on scientific and engineering datasets show TACR cuts simulator deferrals by 14‑75% compared to standard conformal prediction, and by an additional 10‑24% over a variant without threshold‑aware weighting.

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