arXiv AI

Agent-Based Modeling of Low-Emission Fertilizer Adoption for Dairy Farm Decarbonisation using Empirical Farm Data

arXiv:2605. 03648v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To understand complex system dynamics in dairy farming requires tools that capture farm heterogeneity, social interactions, and cumulative environmental impacts.

arXiv AI
Sep 7

LLM-Assisted Behavioural and Scenario Augmentation for Agent-Based Energy Adoption Models

The paper introduces a hybrid framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to assist in designing behavioural and scenario specifications for an agent‑based model of solar photovoltaic adoption by Irish dairy farms. It integrates bounded behavioural rubrics—conservative, balanced, and optimistic—with structured scenario specifications into a calibrated ABM, preserving the original techno‑economic adoption mechanism while adding controlled behavioural modulation and scenario‑driven uncertainty analysis. Experiments across various policy settings and Monte Carlo simulations show stable, economically plausible outcomes, with up to a 13% increase in behavioural adoption compared to a logistic baseline, without causing unrealistic saturation dynamics.

By Iias Faiud, Hossein Khaleghy, Michael Schukat, Karl Mason
arXiv AI
Sep 10

Monte Carlo-Based Ex-Ante Assessment of the Green Benefits of an AI-Driven Smart Agriculture Platform in Hainan

The paper presents a Monte Carlo-based framework to quantify the green benefits of an AI-driven smart agriculture platform in Hainan. By integrating large-language-model question answering, multimodal pest diagnosis, IoT sensing, satellite remote sensing, and a closed-loop field record system, the study builds a cradle-to-farm-gate carbon accounting model and simulates three crop scenarios (mango, winter vegetable, rice). Results show median reductions of 23.5% in pesticide use, 21.0% in fertilizer, 16.5% in irrigation water, and 21.5% in carbon intensity, with high probabilities for fertilizer and carbon reductions but lower for water savings.

By Zhaoyang Li, Ruijie Zhang, Zhaoji Sun, Lu Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 29

Non-Linear Model-Based Sequential Decision-Making in Agriculture

arXiv:2509. 01924v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Agricultural decision-making faces a dual challenge: sustaining high yields to meet global food security needs while reducing the environmental impacts of input use, including fertilizer losses and other agrochemical applications such as herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides.

By Sakshi Arya, Wentao Lin
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Learning Principal-Agent Contracts for Equitable Smallholder Carbon Farming under Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection

The paper investigates how a single pooled contract offered by an aggregator to heterogeneous smallholder farmers can be designed to maximize profit while addressing private adoption costs and unobserved effort over multiple seasons. Using a POMDP framework and reinforcement learning, the authors find that profit‑maximizing contracts disproportionately favor large farms, achieving 87.7% of possible adoption on large farms versus only 8.2% on smallholdings, largely due to higher measurement, reporting, and verification costs on smaller plots. The study suggests that adjusting MRV cost structures could reduce this disparity and help scale carbon farming to smallholders.

By Rishi Bharadwaj, Yadati Narahari
arXiv AI
Oct 19

Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Rules in an Agent-Based Agro-Ecological Model

The paper presents a new method for sensitivity analysis of decision rules in an agent‑based agro‑ecological model. It treats the decision structure as a hierarchical design space, using a random‑forest‑supervised HSIC‑ANOVA to rank main effects and interactions across both categorical and numerical variables. The approach is applied to outputs such as nitrogen leaching, soil organic carbon variation, and yield predictions, providing an interpretable, decision‑oriented analysis.

By Benjamin Pianet, Baptiste Lesquoy, Paul Saves, Benoit Gaudou, Jean Villerd, Nicolas Verstaevel, Olivier Therond
arXiv AI
Sep 10

Simulating the Marginal Green Contribution of AI Modules in a Smart-Agriculture Platform: Evidence from Two Monte Carlo Experiments

The paper evaluates the green benefits of individual AI modules within a smart‑agriculture platform through two Monte Carlo simulations. In Experiment 1, AI diagnosis significantly increases the likelihood of reducing pesticide and fertilizer use compared to traditional extension services, with up to a 49 % probability of a 20 % pesticide reduction when accuracy and adoption are high. Experiment 2 shows that adding AI irrigation scheduling to IoT‑based engineering yields a 5 percentage‑point increase in median water savings and a 30.5 % reduction in paddy methane emissions, while farmer adoption remains the key limiting factor for achieving green targets.

By Zhaoyang Li, Ruijie Zhang, Zhaoji Sun, Lu Zhang
arXiv AI
Jul 10

AI-integrated models for assessing agricultural resilience

arXiv:2607. 07759v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems.

By Joshua R. Waite, Dana Golden, Brett Indelicato, Kevin Camp, Mojdeh Saadati, Shannon Regan, Patrick Schnable, Baskar Ganapathysubramanian, Carlos Messina, Suzanne Thornsbury, Soumik Sarkar