Accelerating the Adoption of Residential Solar Power Systems: Policy Analysis using a Dynamic Structural Model
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Machine Learning.
The paper presents a reinforcement learning framework for designing solar PV adoption policies under uncertainty, integrating RL with a stochastic agent‑based model to simulate yearly adoption over a 16‑year horizon. Policymakers can choose annual incentives such as grants, subsidised loans, and feed‑in tariffs, and the study evaluates three RL algorithms—PPO, SAC, and TD3—within a scalarised reward framework that balances adoption gains against costs. Results show clear trade‑off patterns, with TD3 yielding the highest adoption at higher cost, PPO achieving the lowest cost with fewer adopters, and a balanced PPO policy offering a middle ground, all outperforming static baseline policies.
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The paper introduces a hybrid framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to assist in designing behavioural and scenario specifications for an agent‑based model of solar photovoltaic adoption by Irish dairy farms. It integrates bounded behavioural rubrics—conservative, balanced, and optimistic—with structured scenario specifications into a calibrated ABM, preserving the original techno‑economic adoption mechanism while adding controlled behavioural modulation and scenario‑driven uncertainty analysis. Experiments across various policy settings and Monte Carlo simulations show stable, economically plausible outcomes, with up to a 13% increase in behavioural adoption compared to a logistic baseline, without causing unrealistic saturation dynamics.
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