arXiv AI

Jointly Modeling Preferences and Imperfect Decision-Making in Large Language Models

The paper introduces the Preference-Behavior Model (PBM), which jointly infers Large Language Model (LLM) preferences and imperfect decision-making mechanisms from observed choices. By applying PBM to three social dilemma games—Public Goods, Collective-Risk, and Common-Pool Resource—the authors show that preferences derived from one dilemma can predict behavior in others, whereas traditional behavioral economic elicitation instruments fail to do so consistently. The study also evaluates how well inferred preferences align with persona instructions, revealing both broad agreement and specific divergences across dimensions, LLMs, and games.

arXiv AI
Aug 20

How AI Prompts Can Teach Us About the Structure of Human Behavior

The paper presents an AI-based method that uses a large language model to emulate human decision-making by assigning it a "type vector" describing traits such as Altruism and Risk Aversion. By varying these dimensions and values, the authors fit the model to over 119,000 decisions from 78,657 participants in 10 classic economic games, finding that three dimensions—Risk Aversion, Strategic Sophistication, and Trust—sufficiently capture human behavior. The resulting type clusters, fewer than a dozen, predict behavior in new games, suggesting a low-dimensional, portable representation of human behavior across diverse settings.

By Matthew O. Jackson, Benjamin S. Manning, Yutong Xie, Walter Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 7

Large Language Model Orchestration under Heterogeneous Preferences via Explicit Persona Inference

The paper introduces HARP, a framework for orchestrating heterogeneous agents with hidden preferences by maintaining numeric posterior beliefs updated via Bayes’ rule, rather than embedding beliefs in prompts. HARP achieves ∼O(√K) Bayesian regret and, with the HARP+ variant, adds a bonus for informative actions to keep inference active even when optimal actions are uninformative. Experiments across three problem settings show HARP+ outperforms other non‑oracle methods in scenarios where explicit joint inference is infeasible.

By Shuqing Shi, Ziyan Wang, Milind Tambe, Yali Du
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Modeling Human Behavior with Type Vectors Using AI

The paper presents an AI-based method that models human behavior by assigning a language model a vector of trait intensities—called a type vector—and asking it to predict actions in various settings. By adjusting traits such as Altruism, Risk Aversion, Fairness, and Trust, the authors fit the model to 119,147 decisions from 78,657 subjects across 35 countries and 10 economic games, finding that three dimensions (Risk Aversion, Strategic Sophistication, and Trust) closely match human choices. The resulting type vectors cluster into fewer than a dozen groups and can predict behavior in new games with different rules, demonstrating the method’s generalizability and interpretability.

By Matthew O. Jackson, Benjamin S. Manning, Yutong Xie, Walter Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Multiple latent orderings better predict language model preferences

The paper argues that language models’ intransitive preferences arise from multiple internally consistent latent orderings rather than noise around a single ordering. By demonstrating that a single ordering cannot explain observed inconsistencies and introducing a noise‑augmented mixture Bradley‑Terry model, the authors show that mixtures of orderings better capture preference structure across several models and tasks. A case study on Moral Machine dilemmas further illustrates that models can share latent components even when aggregate preferences differ.

By Aviral Chawla, William H. W. Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Young