The paper introduces the Finance‑Aware Graph Spatio‑Temporal Network (FA‑GSTN) for forecasting realized volatility by treating the implied volatility surface as a dynamic graph. Nodes represent grid points on the surface, with edges capturing adaptive intra‑day spatial and explicit inter‑day temporal relationships, while finance‑aware node features (e.g., option Greeks) and a multi‑scale temporal smoothing gate address high‑frequency noise. Experiments on a large equity options dataset show FA‑GSTN achieves state‑of‑the‑art predictive accuracy (R² up to 0.473) and outperforms Vision Transformer baselines even with only one year of training data, demonstrating robustness during market stress.
By Chuanzhen Wang, Alice Zhang, Wei Chen, Michael Brown
arXiv:2512. 02436v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation with overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets.
By Agostino Capponi, Alfio Gliozzo, Brian Zhu
arXiv:2607. 19385v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper tackles the problem of stock ranking and portfolio construction under realistic investment settings by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and cross-sectional dependencies.
By Haoran Guo, Yutong Lu, Li Zhang
The paper presents a Causal Graph‑Informed Temporal Convolutional Network (CG‑TCN) that fuses a learned causal graph with a temporal convolutional network to forecast retail electricity prices. By decomposing price series into multi‑resolution trends and discovering a causal graph over these components and key covariates, the model conditions its convolutions and attention on causal pathways. On ten years of Ohio residential contracts, CG‑TCN outperforms benchmarks, achieving MAEps of 3.08%, 3.82%, and 5.43% for one‑, ten‑, and fifteen‑step‑ahead forecasts, respectively.
By Yufan Ji, Abdollah Shafieezadeh, Noah Dormady
arXiv:2607. 12067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Institutional equity holdings disclosed in SEC Form 13F filings provide a rich temporal record of portfolio decisions by large investment managers.
By Emad Izadifar, Zahed Rahmati
The paper introduces Future‑Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework that uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision to improve asset retrieval. FASCL’s soft contrastive loss aligns retrieved assets with correlated future returns, and the authors propose a new evaluation protocol to directly assess future trajectory similarity. Experiments on 5,631 US‑listed securities outperform 14 baselines in future return correlation, rank information coefficient, trend consistency, and gross Sharpe ratio across various retrieval depths and basket sizes.
By Hyeongmin Lee, Chanyeol Choi, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Wonbin Ahn, Justin Xu, Srijan Sood, Qingsong Wen, Chun-Li Yang, Yongjae Lee
arXiv:2510. 09416v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Learning on temporal graphs has become a central topic in graph representation learning, with numerous benchmarks indicating the strong performance of state-of-the-art models.
By Abigail J. Hayes, Tobias Schumacher, Markus Strohmaier
arXiv:2608. 15841v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning has gained increasing attention as a data-driven approach for stock trading.
By Arishi Orra, Himanshu Choudhary, Manoj Thakur
MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.
By Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun
arXiv:2606. 04574v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets.
By Damian Lebied\'z, Robert \'Slepaczuk
arXiv:2608. 07158v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal graph learning has become essential for analyzing real-world systems whose interactions continuously evolve over time, including financial transaction networks, communication systems, and online social platforms.
By Poupak Azad, Cuneyt Gurcan Akcora, Kiarash Shamsi
arXiv:2606. 27863v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Demand forecasting at the bottom of a retail hierarchy requires predicting tens of thousands of correlated long-horizon series across products, stores, and regions.
By Janak M. Patel, Anirudh Deodhar, Dagnachew Birru