The paper introduces a two-way guidance framework that jointly learns summary statistics and posterior distributions for Bayesian simulation-based inference. By imposing a structural restriction on the learned summary, the method ensures that the posterior remains sufficient, while the posterior objective simultaneously steers the summary toward sufficiency. The authors provide theoretical guarantees on posterior estimation error and the deviation of the learned summary from sufficiency, outlining conditions on simulation budgets needed to recover increasingly concentrated posteriors as observation size grows.
arXiv:2609.39525v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Casting Bayesian inference as a neural network optimization problem targeting an amortized posterior is attractive, as it extends to otherwise intracta...
arXiv:2602. 09161v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations.
arXiv:2610.01034v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference increasingly uses informative but implicit priors represented only by samples, such as historical ensembles, simulator outputs, an...
arXiv:2607. 22961v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Verbalized Machine Learning (VML) parameterizes a model as a natural-language prompt that an LLM evaluates as f(x; theta).
arXiv:2512. 22999v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider problems of parameter estimation where design variables can be actively optimized to maximize information gain.
arXiv:2606. 25882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: DGPs are probabilistic models with remarkable prediction performance that concatenate GPs across several layers.
arXiv:2606. 31184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency.
arXiv:2606. 15871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals -- posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks -- across a stream of observations.
Product Monte Carlo (PMC) is an algorithm that estimates expectations under a product of densities using only Monte Carlo samples from each individual density. By reformulating the intractable product expectation as a regression problem involving computable conditional expectations, PMC provides both point estimates and coherent Bayesian uncertainty quantification. The method achieves higher accuracy, better-calibrated uncertainty, and improved scalability compared to existing techniques, and it does not require density evaluations, enabling its use in simulation‑based inference such as protein image analysis.
GRAPE is a two‑stage Bayesian optimization framework that first refines the local gradient posterior using a closed‑form acquisition function and then selects update directions by maximizing expected decrease conditioned on descent. The authors prove that the refinement stage monotonically reduces local uncertainty and that the progress‑aware direction converges to true steepest descent as the posterior sharpens. Empirical results show GRAPE achieves a 5.4× speedup on black‑box adversarial attacks and reduces final average regret by 3.8 log‑units on large language model prompt‑optimization tasks.
arXiv:2602. 05395v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A simple strategy for improving LLM accuracy, especially in math and reasoning problems, is to sample multiple responses and submit the answer most consistently reached.
arXiv:2310.04363v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits t...